The SEIR model incorporating asymptomatic cases, behavioral measures, and lockdowns: Lesson learned from the COVID-19 flow in Sweden.

The Sweden approach is unique in handling the COVID-19 flow, compared to other European countries. While other countries have practiced the full lockdowns, Sweden has practiced the lighter lockdowns or the partial lockdowns as public spaces such as cafes and restaurants are allowed to serve their customers subject to government recommendations. This study aims to develop an SEIR model for Sweden capturing important issues such as the roles of behavioral measures, partial lockdowns, and undocumented cases. The suggested SEIR model is probably the first SEIR model capturing the roles of behavioral measures, partial lockdowns, hospital preparedness, and asymptomatic cases for Sweden. The SEIR model can successfully reproduce similar main observed outputs, namely documented infected cases and documented death cases. This study finds that the effects of partial lockdowns effectively start 52 days after the first confirmed case. Again, behavioral measures and partial lockdowns reduce possible infected cases about 22% and 70% respectively. This study also suggests that the Sweden government should step up to the full lockdowns by conducting public closures so COVID-19 flow can be curtailed significantly. Likewise, owing to airborne transmission, protecting vulnerable people such as senior citizens should be prioritised.

Lessons learned from three Southeast Asian countries during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Several scholars have focused on the COVID-19 case studies in Europe and USA, leaving the people in Southeast Asia with little information about the lesson learned from their own case studies. This study aims to analyses case studies through the SEIR model in three Southeast Asia countries including Singapore, Malaysia, and Indonesia. The SEIR model incorporates two types measures including social behavior and lockdowns as well as hospital preparedness. The SEIR model reveals that Malaysia, despite its relatively low testing capacity but with the application of the national lockdown, can slash the coronavirus transmission while Indonesia has still struggled to contain the COVID-19 flow owing to partial lockdowns. Singapore, at one hand, can successfully contain the coronavirus due to the national lockdowns, and the better healthcare system. With this point in mind, it is not surprising that Singapore has very low fatality rates and significantly low cases after lockdowns. Better preparedness lockdowns, and sufficient testing capacity are keys to controlling the COVID-19 flow, especially if the development of vaccines or distribution of respective vaccines is under progress.

Understanding the First and the Second Waves of the COVID-19 in Germany: Is our Social Behavior Enough to Protect us from the Pandemic?

Like other European countries, Germany has experienced the 2nd wave of the COVID-19 amid obligations of social distancing and wearing of face masks in public spaces. Although Germany successfully contained the virus during the 1st wave, it has faced difficulties in controlling the COVID-19 during the 2nd wave. This study develops a computer model representing the COVID-19 flow in Germany by comparing the effects of the measures taken during the 1st and the 2nd waves. The computer model is based on the SEIR concept and the system dynamics (SD) approach in which some unknown parameters are estimated through the calibration process. Moreover, the SEIR computer model is developed by considering different cases in older and young people and the SEIR model successfully reproduces similar patterns of infected, recovered, and death cases in the 1st and the 2nd waves in Germany. The SEIR model also shows that the measures taken in the 1st wave have different efficacies than those in the 2nd wave, leading to higher infected cases during the 2nd wave. Since the SEIR model can successfully reproduce similar patterns, the SEIR model can be a basis for further studies in estimating other resource needs such as health workers, and bed capacities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] Copyright of Walailak Journal of Science & Technology is the property of Walailak Journal of Science & Technology and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)